Brexit economic impact analysis published

Brexit economic impact analysis
© iStock/MHJ

The UK government has published its Brexit economic impact analysis, projecting the effect on the country’s finances of the UK leaving the EU.

The Brexit economic impact analysis, an in-depth breakdown of the UK’s post-Brexit economy over the next 15 years, shows leaving the EU under Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement would cut the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.9 per cent, while crashing out in a no deal Brexit would cause GDP to drop by 9.3 per cent. Every Brexit scenario modelled in the report left the country significantly worse off economically.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell has been granted an urgent question in parliament to be addressed to chancellor Philip Hammond this afternoon, demanding Hammond’s response to the Brexit economic impact analysis; however, Hammond has refused to respond to McDonnell’s question and will send junior minister Mel Stride in his place.

While the Brexit economic impact analysis has been made available to parliament, the government has refused to release the full legal advice it has been given regarding Brexit – despite a legally binding motion in the House of Commons compelling it to do so – offering instead a position statement. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer said: “It’s completely unacceptable for Number 10 to point blank refuse to publish the full legal advice on the withdrawal agreement…Labour will use all the mechanisms available to force this information to be published.”

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research released its Brexit economic impact analysis, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, on Monday. The report showed that May’s withdrawal agreement would cost each UK resident more than £1,000 in comparison to remaining in the EU – in total, the financial loss would be the equivalent of losing the economic output of the entirety of Wales or London.

The Bank of England will publish its own Brexit economic impact analysis late this afternoon. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says the bank will provide “an analysis of how the EU Withdrawal Agreement will affect our ability to deliver our statutory remits for monetary and financial stability, including in a ‘no deal, no transition’ scenario.”

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